The DFG research project TARGET (TAming UnceRtainty in EnerGy MarkETs: Forecasting with Dependency Structures) develops new statistical and econometric time series methods for energy markets to better model uncertainty. It is divided into two parts:

• Short-term risks: Analysis of complex dependencies and extreme events using advanced models (e.g., state-space models, quantile-based approaches, and copulas).
• Long-term risks: Examination of persistence and fundamental factors by combining expert knowledge with data-driven methods.

The aim is to improve forecasting and risk management in energy markets and to support both academic research and practical applications.

The project partner is Prof. PhDr. Jozef Baruník (IES FSV UK)