The DFG research project TARGET (TAming UnceRtainty in EnerGy MarkETs: Forecasting with Dependency Structures) develops new statistical and econometric time series methods for energy markets to better model uncertainty. It is divided into two parts:

• Short-term risks: Analysis of complex dependencies and extreme events using advanced models (e.g., state-space models, quantile-based approaches, and copulas).
• Long-term risks: Examination of persistence and fundamental factors by combining expert knowledge with data-driven methods.

The aim is to improve forecasting and risk management in energy markets and to support both academic research and practical applications.

Partner:

Prof. PhDr. Jozef Baruník (IES FSV UK)